Prediction Markets Record Volume in October at $4.13 Billion

Prediction markets had their strongest month on record in October. College football and the return of the NFL sharply boosted trading volume. According to a report by Jefferies analyst Daniel Fannon, average daily volume in yes or no contracts rose 55% from the previous month to $4.13 billion. Open interest also climbed 45% from September to $3.27 billion, reaching a new high.

Polymarket's average daily volume reached $655 million in October, up 50% from the previous month. The platform's market share remained steady at 17%. Total volume of the other platforms tracked in the report was recorded at $309 million, and their combined market share held roughly steady at about 7%.

Rothera, the joint venture of Robinhood and Susquehanna International Group, saw its volume rise 55% to $49 million. The platform's share of sector volume went from 1.5% in September to 1.2% in October.

Sports contracts continued to account for 78% of total volume. The average daily volume of this category reached about $2.98 billion. Jefferies said that, in addition to the college football and NFL seasons, the start of the 2026-27 NBA campaign also contributed to the increase. The share of sports contracts in open interest rose from 73% in September to 83%. The rise of combination contracts on weekends suggests that traders are turning to multi-leg positions in football predictions. The report noted that DraftKings' DKeX platform has benefited from this trend, and that the share of combination contracts was higher on both weekdays and weekends.

Average daily volume of non-sports markets also rose 55% to $843 million. The report said the upcoming midterm election cycle in the US and interest in political outcomes may have played a role in this activity.