Prediction markets lagged sports betting in September

According to data from the financial firm Stifel, taker volume in prediction markets rose 27 percent month over month in September. Regulated sports betting handle, meanwhile, rose 43 percent in the states that report figures. September was the month the American football season began, which typically boosts betting activity.

Analyst Jeffrey Stantial based his analysis on taker volume, which tracks users who start a trade by accepting existing offers. This measure is easier to compare with betting handle than total notional trading volume is. Taker volume in regulated prediction markets in September was estimated at 17.7 billion dollars. Total volume rose 64 percent to 77 billion dollars.

Most of the trading still consists of sports contracts. Single-game contracts under CFTC oversight rose 23 percent to 22.8 billion dollars. Combination contracts that work on parlay logic rose 122 percent to 41.6 billion dollars. Stantial noted that the pool of potential customers may be limited and that retaining users who suffer large losses could become harder once promotions lose their effect.

Smaller operators did not gain a notable share in September. Notional volume on DraftKings' DKeX platform rose 2 percent. Novig reached a 1.9 percent share of the market, helped in part by its advertising campaign featuring Sydney Sweeney. Macquarie raised its 2026 taker volume forecast from 169 billion dollars to 190 billion dollars and named regulatory uncertainty as the main risk.