Lula Re-elected, What Happens to Brazil's Betting Sector?

In Brazil, Lula da Silva won the runoff after trailing in the first round, making history. It is the first time since the country's transition to democracy in 1985 that a presidential candidate has won in this way. The left-leaning head of state took 51.79 percent of the vote and returned to office for a fourth time. Polling companies and prediction markets had called the result wrong.

The outcome is not good news for Brazil's betting sector. Nine days before the first-round vote, Lula announced he wants to repeal the law he approved in 2024, which opened the online betting market in early 2025. The future of the sector is therefore uncertain.

Opposition candidate Flavio Bolsonaro had taken a more flexible stance on betting. However, his party did not openly back it, arguing that the regulation needs a thorough overhaul. Lula's ban came in the form of a presidential decree that will take effect within 60 to 120 days. Betting companies must wrap up their operations by October 25. Congress can reject or amend the decree.

Congress will be the deciding factor at this point. In the general elections held in October, the Liberal Party increased its seats to 121 in the Chamber of Deputies and to 29 in the Senate. The mix of political balances in both chambers keeps open the possibility that Lula's decree could be rejected or changed.