A First Nation in Canada Has Passed Its Own Prediction Markets Law

Tobique First Nation in New Brunswick, Canada, has put its own prediction markets regulation into effect. The report says this step could be an approach similar to that of Gibraltar in Europe.

With fewer than three thousand members according to the 2025 census, the community has its own regulator, the Tobique Gaming Commission (TGC), which was established under the Tobique Gaming Act of 2023.

The community passed the Prediction Markets Act based on its inherent self-government rights and established the Tobique Prediction Market Authority. This new authority will operate as a body separate from the TGC, which oversees license holders. The community selected CL Specialist Projects Limited as its main adviser on global market and business developments. Cliff Lewin, the company's director, will serve as the primary advisory contact.

According to the source, Tobique stands out as the first and only Indigenous sovereign government in Canada and across North America to pass a law specifically for prediction markets. The regulation goes beyond Canada's federal and provincial legislation. That legislation does not explicitly ban prediction markets, but because it places heavy restrictions on short-term binary options, it has pushed them into a grey area.

The report also raises the question of whether Tobique will serve as an example for other First Nation communities, and whether similar frameworks will emerge in provinces that have explicitly banned prediction markets.