Fixed-size trades on Kalshi's Bitcoin and Ether futures changed in sync

Gambling Insider examined a pattern in the perpetual futures (perp) markets of Kalshi, a federally regulated prediction market platform in the United States. According to the magazine's analysis, roughly half of Kalshi's bitcoin perp volume consists of fixed-size trades.

After The Wall Street Journal reported in September on nearly identical trades worth about $5 billion in ether futures contracts, Kalshi argued in a blog post that fast traders were taking advantage of stale price quotes from a market maker. However, Gambling Insider's review found that the traders behind these trades did not achieve better results than chance.

The magazine also found the same pattern in the bitcoin futures market, with fixed trade sizes changing alongside the ether market. On three occasions in August and September, fixed sizes in the two contracts changed within ten minutes of each other. In those two months, $10.17 billion, or 52%, of the total $19.68 billion in bitcoin perp volume occurred in a handful of fixed sizes.

Such close timing raises the question of whether the same participants are behind the fixed-size trades in both contracts. Kalshi is in a position to answer this question but has not yet made a statement. Elisabeth Diana, the company's communications head, said they do not comment on individual trader activity.

Kalshi also confirmed that its volume-based rebate program, which would pay based on trading volume, has not gone live. However, three different perp incentive programs are active, although no announcement has been made about their launch. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which regulates the platform, did not respond to a request for comment on the story.