Debate grows over link between betting ban and supermarket sales

The Brazilian Supermarket Association (ABRAS) linked the rise in food purchases in October to the betting ban. The association said sales rose 6.5% year on year in the period of 5-11 October and 6.3% in the period of 12-18 October. It noted that the increase was seen in all regions and store types examined. According to the association, some of the money previously set aside for betting may have been redirected to household shopping.

ABRAS President João Galassi presented the findings at the Supervendas fair in Aracaju. He pointed to increased purchases of staple goods such as rice, vegetable oil, pasta and coffee. Vice President Márcio Milan argued that the timing of the sales increases supports the view that the ban should be maintained. The association also cited a decline in Pix transactions after the ban as an indication of a change in household spending habits. However, Pix data alone does not show that money has moved from betting accounts to supermarkets.

The Brazilian Responsible Gaming Institute (IBJR) stated that the figures do not prove the betting ban caused the rise in food purchases. The institute argued that consumption should be assessed against what it would have been without the bans, taking into account employment, income, prices and household resources. IBJR noted that ABRAS/NIQ's weekly data showed nominal sales growth of 7.9% in the 14-20 September period before the ban, compared with 7.4% in the 5-11 October period. It also pointed out that ABRAS had previously linked consumption growth to employment, income and falling food prices.

IBJR said Pix transaction numbers do not show how much betting spending has fallen, where the money went, or whether gambling continues on illegal platforms. The institute also questioned estimates of a loss of 143 billion reais in retail sales and 62.5 billion reais in household income. Saying these figures measure different things, IBJR argued they should not be treated as spending lost by regulated operators. Based on Ministry of Finance data, IBJR reported that the gross gaming revenue of the regulated market in 2025 (the amount remaining after prizes are paid out of deposits) was about 37 billion reais, equal to roughly 0.46% of household consumption.