Texas Capital Downgrades Full House Resorts Stock

Full House Resorts (NASDAQ: FLL) is having a difficult 2026. On Monday, the stock slipped slightly after Texas Capital analyst David Bain downgraded the regional casino operator. Bain changed his rating from "buy" to "hold" and cut his price target from $3.50 to $1. The new target implies a 20.4% upside from the current level.

Bain's third-quarter EBITDA estimate is $14.1 million. That figure falls short of the consensus estimate of $15.8 million. One of the main obstacles facing the stock is uncertainty over whether permanent financing can be secured for the American Place Casino.

Bain believes the company may have secured this financing. The analyst notes that Full House may have set up a sale-leaseback structure with a REIT. However, he did not disclose which REIT was involved or the possible sale price of the land. He emphasizes that refinancing talks are continuing under existing credit facilities and that the contraction in the high-yield bond market is still pressuring the company. He therefore prefers to wait for greater clarity on credit terms.

The Chamonix Casino Hotel in Cripple Creek, Colorado, faced some problems after it opened in December 2023. Full House is pursuing "aggressive" cost cuts at this property. Bain says these steps could weigh on third-quarter results, but they are putting expenses on a firmer footing. The analyst expects the full effect of the savings to show in the fourth quarter and a more durable margin structure to form for 2027 estimates.