Macquarie Keeps $11 Target for Genius Sports

Macquarie reiterated its Outperform rating and $11 target price for Genius Sports. Analyst Chad Beynon's note says the target implies 90% upside from the November 5 closing price of $5.78.

The company beat expectations on revenue and adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter. Revenue rose 62% to $269.9 million, 3% above consensus. Adjusted EBITDA rose 157% to $87.1 million, with a margin of 32.3%, 2% above expectations.

Media revenue more than doubled following the Legend acquisition. Betting revenue exceeded consensus by 7%. NFL live game gross gaming revenue rose 50%. The company reached an EBITDA cash conversion rate of 51% in the quarter. Macquarie expects this rate to be around 45% in 2027 and 2028.

Prediction market revenue grew, driven by data agreements with Kalshi and Polymarket. Macquarie sees significant upside potential for the company if the NFL takes a more positive view of prediction markets, as MLB and NHL have. Management raised its 2026 guidance only by the size of the beat, that is, $10 million in revenue and $2 million in EBITDA. Macquarie considers this step conservative.

The bank lowered its EBITDA estimates for 2026, 2027 and 2028 to $290 million, $385 million and $507 million, from $292 million, $407 million and $515 million, respectively. The estimates remain above management's $500 million target for 2028.