Gibraltar offers licensing framework for prediction markets

Gibraltar is positioning itself as a possible prediction market hub in Europe by creating a dedicated regulatory framework for operators offering contracts on future events. Local authorities argued at the PX Markets Summit Europe that these platforms should be regulated rather than banned.

The summit brought together representatives of the betting industry, technology companies, legal experts and responsible gambling organizations. Discussions covered the trading of contracts tied to the outcomes of events such as elections, economic developments and sports matches. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi are attracting growing interest from investors and regulators.

Predict Street was the first to receive a license in Gibraltar, in April 2026. The Prediction Market Regulations 2026 came into force in July. The framework covers measures against money laundering, consumer protection and market manipulation. As of November, two operators have been authorized: Predict Street Limited and Wire Alternative Markets Limited. Gibraltar Gambling Commissioner Andrew Lyman said additional license applications are also under consideration.

The stance of some European countries is different. In June 2026, regulators from nine countries, including Poland, France, Germany and Spain, issued a joint warning against prediction market platforms operating without the necessary permits. These regulators stressed that labeling a product as a prediction market does not exempt the operator from national gambling legislation. Some contracts resembling financial instruments such as binary options, however, create uncertainty over classification.

A license obtained in Gibraltar reportedly does not give the operator access to customers in other European countries. The future of prediction markets in Europe will depend not only on the development of dedicated licensing frameworks, but also on how each country classifies and regulates these products.