What is the Turkey stay-in-A-League scenario if Turkey beat Belgium?

Turkey, who lost their first four matches in Group 1 of the UEFA Nations League A League, have yet to earn a point. France lead the group with 10 points, followed by Italy on 7 and Belgium on 6.

A win over Belgium would take Turkey to 3 points. However, the Star and Crescent side have no realistic chance of finishing in the top two and advancing to the quarter-finals. For Turkey to finish third in the group, they must beat Belgium and also defeat France, whom they face away on 15 November.

If Belgium lose to Italy in their final match, both teams will finish on 6 points and the head-to-head record will come into play. Belgium beat Turkey 3-0 in the first meeting. Therefore, for Turkey to overtake their rival on head-to-head, they need to win the match in Izmir by at least 4 goals.

Among the teams finishing third in the group, the best two will stay in the A League directly, while the other two will play off against the runners-up from the B League. If the national team beat Belgium but then drop points against France, they will finish the group in fourth place. Under the system UEFA has set for the 2026-2027 season, the last-placed teams in the four groups will be compared with each other. The best two fourth-placed teams will go to the play-off matches, while the worst two fourth-placed teams will be relegated directly to the B League.