Prediction Market Trading Volume Rose 55% in October

According to a new report Jefferies analyst Daniel Fannon sent to clients, daily trading volume on prediction markets rose 55% in October to 4.13 billion dollars, the highest level ever. Open interest volume also rose 45% month over month to a record 3.27 billion dollars.

Much of the growth was concentrated on the largest platform. Polymarket US and Rothera also drew attention in October. Polymarket's daily trading volume rose 50% monthly to 655 million dollars, and its market share stayed at 17%, the same level as in September. Daily volume on the other platforms Fannon tracks rose 56% monthly to 309 million dollars, while their market share held steady at around 7%.

Rothera, a joint venture between Robinhood and Susquehanna International Group, launched in June. Rothera's total daily trading volume in October was 49 million dollars, accounting for 1.2% of sector volume. In September, that share was 1.5%.

Sports contracts continued to drive growth. The pickup in American football and college leagues, along with the start of the 2026-27 NBA season, lifted sports trading volume 55% monthly to 2,978 million dollars. Sports contracts kept a 78% market share, the same as in September. In open interest, the sports share rose from 73% in September to 83% in October.

Fannon noted increased use of multi-leg combinations on weekends. DraftKings' DKeX product is among those benefiting from this trend.

Non-sports categories also rose 55% monthly in October, to 843 million dollars. This increase is believed to stem largely from interest in political events. The report noted that today is Election Day and said that in the short term, non-sports growth would depend on crypto and financial derivative contracts.