Polymarket Sees $500,000 in Volume on Toronto Mayoral Election

CIRO, Canada's investment regulator, has tightened its rules on prediction markets. In a statement dated October 16, the organization said it does not consider it appropriate for event contracts based on sports and entertainment events to be traded through its investment dealer members. These contracts are listed as explicitly prohibited under the updated terms.

Under the current rules, authorized dealers can offer only certain event contracts tied to economic forecasts, environmental indicators and financial markets. The term must be at least 30 days. Contracts based on elections and other political outcomes are prohibited. CIRO also barred its members from offering and promoting unauthorized contracts, such as political betting, to clients.

Even so, trading volume on Polymarket for the October 26 Toronto mayoral election has exceeded $500,000. On the platform, Brad Bradford shows at 50 percent ($201,762 in volume), while the incumbent Olivia Chow shows at 49 percent ($258,735 in volume). The reported volume does not show where the participants are located. The trades could have been made by foreigners, by Canadians bypassing geographic restrictions, or by both.

The investment dealer members permitted to trade event contracts in Canada are Wealthsimple and Interactive Brokers Canada Inc. Wealthsimple Predict launched last July. A team led by Atul Tiwari, the former CEO of Vanguard Canada, has also applied to CIRO to set up a regulated platform called VerdX.