Suspicious Polymarket Trades Tied to El-Sayed and Ricketts

In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed became the first Muslim senator elected to the U.S. Senate by voters. Nominal trading volume on Polymarket for the Michigan Senate race exceeded 13.7 million dollars, of which more than 7.9 million dollars related to El-Sayed.

A researcher at Vanderbilt University began tracking trades in the race as part of a broader effort to study prediction market movements in the U.S. midterm elections. The Vanderbilt Institute of National Security team examined two six-figure trades that appeared oddly timed relative to El-Sayed's victory over Republican opponent Mike Rogers. The team also flagged a suspicious trade related to Nebraska Senator Pete Ricketts' reelection bid. Brett Goldstein, one of the team's leaders, said it is hard to dismiss this series of events as random.

On Halloween, about an hour before the New York Times and Siena College poll was published, an anonymous Polymarket user deposited roughly 200,000 dollars. At the time, Ricketts led independent candidate Dan Osborn 49 percent to 43 percent. Ricketts' chance of winning rose from 67 percent to 73 percent before the poll and then climbed to 79 percent after it. A user named Dubdubdub2 was reported to have made more than 77,000 dollars from this trade.

The same user was seen making two more trades in the early morning hours. At 3:27 a.m., they placed a 349,135-dollar bet on an El-Sayed victory, and at 5:20 a.m., a 273,473-dollar bet on a Democratic victory. The user's potential profit if Rogers does not win is estimated at about 180,000 dollars. A Polymarket spokesperson said the company noticed the trades immediately, while Kalshi did not comment. The user is also reported to have made large trades in similar markets on Kalshi.

However, TheBlock's blockchain analysis reported that the user's history includes large and risky trades, that they engaged in DeFi yield farming, and that they held their positions until election day. This data offers an alternative explanation to the claim that insider information was used. El-Sayed has not made an official statement about the trades. Earlier, he had reacted on X to a nuclear weapons prediction contract on Polymarket's offshore platform, writing that online betting was ruining people's lives and had now become a national security threat.