Suspected Insider Trading on Ballon d'Or Bets on Polymarket

There are suspicions of insider trading on the Polymarket prediction market targeting France's Ballon d'Or award. Twelve accounts opened between October 1 and 20 deposited a total of 264 thousand dollars to correctly predict the top five rankings. Predictions were made for Harry Kane, Kylian Mbappé, Lamine Yamal, Rodri and Lionel Messi, in that order.

France Football, which organizes the award, maintains that the vote was conducted through an independent process. However, seven accounts placed bets only on this low-probability outcome, and six placed their bets within 15 minutes of opening the account. This pattern suggests that some people may have had prior knowledge of the results.

Price movements also support concerns about manipulation. On contracts opened on September 29, the probability of Yamal finishing ahead of Mbappé was between 80 and 90 percent, and this level held until October 8. On October 9, without any announcement, it fell to 55 percent, and on October 22 it dropped to 28 percent. There is no sporting event or official announcement that would explain this change.

France Football said that it considers the integrity of the Ballon d'Or to be a priority. The organization has opened a formal investigation and announced that French police will also be involved in the process. It committed to bringing all information to light in order to identify those responsible.

Polymarket is banned in France. Regulators classified the platform's contracts as gambling, and internet providers were ordered to block access. Users can still get in using a VPN. Polymarket also said it will examine similar suspicious activity around Israel's general election. Reports say hundreds of new accounts placed winning bets just before the polling stations closed, and some accounts earned total profits of more than 100 thousand dollars. The platform said it will report these activities to law enforcement. Despite new rules introduced in March, proving that someone had privileged information is very difficult, and because no identity verification is required, such misuse is expected to continue.