Kalshi Overtakes Polymarket in Search Interest

According to Blask's data, Kalshi overtook Polymarket in brand searches across US prediction markets in October. Polymarket had led the category for more than two years. Kalshi, however, had long held the lead in total trading volume.

Under Blask's BAP metric, Kalshi took 51.8% of search demand in October, while Polymarket's share was 37.5%. On the Blask Index, Kalshi rose 153% from the previous month, while Polymarket fell 3%. During the 2024 presidential election, Polymarket had captured 88% of brand searches.

Polymarket reclaimed the top spot on November 4, when search demand rose to four times its October daily average because of the US midterm elections. Blask's findings suggest consumer interest can shift quickly and competition may intensify further. The company's reports also indicate that sports, elections and geopolitical events each generate different patterns of interest.

Kalshi's October rise coincided with a surge in trading on sporting events. According to Predictable data, Kalshi recorded $19.03 billion in contract volume between October 5 and 11. Roughly 70% of that volume came from parlay-style combo contracts. Based on TokenPost data, Blask reported that football combos accounted for 67.6% of Kalshi's October volume.