Galatasaray and Fenerbahçe's Champions League win probabilities
Opta has released the win and draw probabilities for the Galatasaray and Fenerbahçe matches in the fourth week of the UEFA Champions League. Galatasaray were calculated to be more likely to beat Stuttgart, while Liverpool were calculated to be more likely to beat Fenerbahçe.
The fourth week of the 2026/27 season of the UEFA Champions League, Europe's most important club trophy, begins today. Galatasaray will host Bundesliga side Stuttgart at home. The match kicks off today at 20:45.
Opta shared the win and draw probabilities it calculated after thousands of simulations. According to these, Galatasaray's chance of winning the match was calculated at 43.4%. Stuttgart's chance of victory was determined to be 33%, and the draw probability was set at 23.6%. Galatasaray had not previously won a Champions League home match against German teams. If the yellow-reds win tonight, they will have beaten a German team on their own ground in the Champions League for the first time.
Fenerbahçe, meanwhile, will face Liverpool in the Champions League for the first time. According to the assessment, Liverpool's chance of winning the match was calculated at 57.8%. Fenerbahçe's chance of leaving the pitch with 3 points was estimated at 20.4%, and the draw probability at 21.8%. The match between Fenerbahçe and Liverpool will be played on Wednesday, 4 November at 20:45.
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