Two Large Kalshi Trades on Cincinnati Total $185,000

Two large trades were made on Kalshi, the prediction market platform, in contracts predicting that the Cincinnati Bearcats will take part in the 2027 NCAA men's basketball tournament. Each trade involved 125,000 YES contracts bought at 74 cents, and each was worth $92,500, for a combined value of nearly $200,000. If Cincinnati makes the tournament, the contracts will pay a total of $250,000. If the team does not qualify, the money placed on the YES positions will be lost.

The trades took place on Wednesday, November 4, in the afternoon, at 2:44 p.m. and 3:03 p.m. Eastern Time. The market surveillance firm BETINT was the first to flag the trades. The two trades raised the open interest in the Cincinnati contract to 250,065. Before Wednesday, only 39 trades had been made in this contract over six weeks.

The two large trades accounted for about 95% of the total trading volume in the 126-team market.

The trades were made below the normal market price. The last trade in the regular market had taken place at 82 cents, and the smaller trades that followed ranged between 79 and 82 cents. The market opened on September 22, after the NCAA decided to expand both its men's and women's basketball tournaments from 68 teams to 76. Cincinnati opened its season with a 79-53 win over American University. The Bearcats finished last season with 18 wins and 15 losses and did not qualify for the NCAA tournament.

Kalshi's market pricing on Thursday morning put Cincinnati's chance of making the tournament at 82%. The identities of the traders are not known, because Kalshi does not disclose the parties to block trades. These trades are open only to financial institutions, investment funds, regulated insurance companies, and entities with assets exceeding $10 million. BETINT said the same size, price, and timing pattern could mean that a single buyer was splitting an order, or that a broker was trading on behalf of two clients. However, no verified link has been established between the trades and any specific person, organization, or financial regulation.