Brazil's betting ban comes into play with the election

Brazil's elections on October 25 represent a critical threshold for the country's betting sector. Lula da Silva signed the law regulating betting in 2023, but today he stands as a defender of the betting ban. His rival, Flávio Bolsonaro, implies he is open to reopening the market. Bolsonaro's name has also come up in a police investigation into allegations of money laundering linked to betting. Bolsonaro rejects these allegations.

In the latest Datafolha poll, the two candidates are nearly even. Bolsonaro receives 47 percent and Lula 46 percent. Prediction markets, however, price Bolsonaro's victory at a 79 percent probability. On election day, all federal and state betting licenses issued under Provisional Measure 1,394/2026 will also expire. Licensed operators will have been unable to operate for about three weeks by that date.

The ban has come at a heavy cost. Eighty-five licensed operators in the sector have closed. According to ANJL data, more than 3,000 employees have been laid off and more than 4,000 people have been placed on unpaid leave. Meanwhile, as of October 12, more than 30,000 illegal sites are accessible. The government is also losing revenue. Between January and September, the Treasury collected 11.12 billion reais in taxes from betting and gaming.

The final decision will not come before the ballot box. Supreme Court Justice Luiz Fux will rule on the constitutional lawsuits filed by the sector after the election, and he has not yet set a date. For the provisional measure to become law, Congress must form a joint committee and pass it through the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate. The committee has not yet been formed. The urgency period begins on November 9, with the first deadline on November 23.