Suspicious Prediction Market Profits at the Ballon d'Or: Police Report

The organizers of football's most prestigious award, the Ballon d'Or, are preparing to file a criminal complaint after anonymous accounts that predicted the top five rankings earned about $200,000. Groupe Amaury, the owner of France Football, said on Saturday that it is investigating whether the secret voting results were leaked before the ceremony in London on October 26.

Upside, a French financial news site, found that 12 accounts made trades worth about $264,000 on Polymarket on the top five. Upside noticed the suspicious activity on October 23, three days before the winners were announced. The accounts were opened between October 1 and October 20, shortly after voting closed. Seven of the accounts had never traded on any other topic, and six started trading within 15 minutes of being opened.

The accounts all predicted the same ranking. One of them, a user named kraben006, backed each of the five positions separately. According to an analysis of on-chain transactions, about $309,000 was deposited into the accounts and $500,000 was withdrawn. The first withdrawal was made 19 minutes after the results were announced. Upside found a link between a wallet connected to kraben006 and Deblock, a French finance app. The app's identity verification records could help investigators.

The award is decided by a jury of international journalists, and the results are kept secret until the ceremony. Former France Football editor Pascal Ferré said that only a few people should know the result in advance. Groupe Amaury has also reported the matter to the French police. However, a leak has not yet been proven, and the owners of the accounts are unknown.