Most Americans see prediction markets as gambling

A survey commissioned by the AGA finds that a large majority of U.S. adults believe prediction markets should be regulated as gambling products rather than financial investment products. The survey included 2,268 adults. Eighty-two percent of respondents supported regulating prediction markets the same way as sports betting. The figure was 84 percent among Democrats, 82 percent among Republicans, and 90 percent among independent voters.

AGA President and CEO Bill Miller said that, at a time of ongoing political polarization, Americans are united against marketing sports betting as an investment. According to the survey, three in four people believe that trading on sports events in a prediction market is essentially the same as sports betting. The survey was conducted using Qualtrics software and has a margin of error of plus or minus two points.

The AGA argues that sports event contracts traded on prediction markets amount to illegal sports betting. According to the association, these platforms operate outside state and tribal regulations, bypass consumer protections, and avoid licensing and taxes. The AGA says the platforms do not pay state taxes on their platform revenue and estimates that states have lost more than $1.66 billion in tax revenue since the end of 2025.

Prediction markets say they are not counterparties and that trades take place between users. However, the report notes that the other side of trades is often institutional trading firms and electronic market makers such as Susquehanna International Group. The report states that this company earned $22.1 billion in revenue in 2025. The survey shows that the number of Americans who want prediction markets treated as gambling products is growing.